A new study by economists at the University of Chicago found that only 7% of the change in consumer mobility in the United States in recent months can be explained by lockdowns.

The rest (93%) is due to consumer aversion to social interaction because of the virus. In other words, most people would avoid office, restaurants and theatres even if they were open until there is a vaccine.

The study used high-frequency mobility data, the researchers compared the experiences of consumers in locations with severe lockdowns to those in locations with no or limited lockdowns. They found there wasn’t a big difference between the two.

References:

University of Chicago, WORKING PAPER · NO. 2020-80. Fear, Lockdown, and Diversion: Comparing Drivers of Pandemic Economic Decline 2020. Austan Goolsbee and Chad Syverson JUNE 2020 https://bfi.uchicago.edu/wp-content/uploads/BFI_WP_202080v2.pdf